In recent seasons UTSA has had close games with its Texas rivals. What if those games had turned out differently.
The What If Series: What If...An Earlier Debut | What If...A Different first coach | What If...The Saints come marching in and stay in SA | What If...A different Conference Realignment | What If...The Roadrunner QBs | What If...The Roadrunners in March | What If...The near misses | What If...Victories were actually defeats | What If...A different outcome in the New Mexico Bowl | What If...The Roadrunners play Houston in 2017 | What if...The Rivalry Games Part 1
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Since starting football in 2011 the Roadrunners have compiled a record of 45-61. The Roadrunners have had better luck in their games against their Texas rivals of Texas State, UTEP, Rice and North Texas.
In the rivalry games UTSA has a record of 16-9. That overall record breaks down to 5-3 against Rice, 5-2 against UTEP, 3-4 against North Texas and 3-0 against Texas State. Since the start of the 2016 season UTSA is 4-0 against Rice, 3-1 against UTEP, 1-3 against North Texas and 2-0 against Texas State.
There have been memorable games against each rival. In 2016 alone there was the Roadrunners first win at Rice Stadium and the five overtime loss at home to UTEP in the span of two weeks. In 2017 UTSA played all four rivals in the same season for the first time. They played all four again in 2018 and are tentatively scheduled to play all four rivals in 2020 but at this point who knows if anybody is going to be playing in 2020.
Every series against the rivals has featured close games, especially since the start of the 2016 season. What if those close games had turned out differently?
What if UTSA beats North Texas in 2017?
Another chapter was added to the UTSA-North Texas rivalry in 2017. For Roadrunner fans it turned out to be a rough chapter.
The Roadrunners were in Denton for the fifth meeting against North Texas. It was the third time the two schools had faced off at Apogee Stadium. UTSA had shocked the Mean Green in 2013 and North Texas had won a 2015 game that brought the two teams combined wins for the season to two. That 2015 game was the only win for North Texas in the series heading into 2017.
UTSA entered the game with a 3-1 record but had just suffered their first loss of the season a week before in the conference opener against Southern Miss. North Texas was 3-2 on the season but had started 2-0 in conference play.
North Texas raced out to a 16-7 lead after one quarter but UTSA scored 10 points in the second quarter to take a 17-16 lead into halftime. The Roadrunners added a field goal in the third quarter to go up 20-16 before the fun of the fourth quarter started. North Texas retook the lead with a touchdown at the 12:49 mark. UTSA retook the lead later with 3:29 left to play.
After a North Texas punt UTSA had a chance to run out the final 1:28 of the game but the Roadrunners were unable to get a first down that would have iced the game. North Texas used all their timeouts to get the ball back with 1:07 to play. The Mean Green went down the field and scored in 57 seconds to steal a 29-26 victory from UTSA. The Roadrunners momentum never really recovered in 2017 and North Texas went on to win the west division. But what if UTSA had held on for the win?
A win over North Texas would have given UTSA a 1-1 record in the division and dropped the Mean Green to 2-1. UTSA also would have moved to 4-1 all-time against the Dentonians. As for the 2017 season a win over North Texas would have kept UTSA in the division race until November and might have led to wins over FIU and UAB that were actually close losses. Assuming UTSA beats FIU and UAB following their win over North Texas the Roadrunners would have entered the season finale against Louisiana Tech with the winner of that game moving on to the Conference USA championship game.
Outside of the conference race, if UTSA had beat North Texas in 2017 and all other results go the way they did the Roadrunners end the season with a 7-4 record and almost certainly would have been headed to a bowl game.
They only needed one first down.
What if UTSA loses to Texas State in 2018?
When UTSA and Texas State got together in San Marcos in 2017 it turned out not to be much of a contest as UTSA floated down the river with a 44-14 victory. The I-35 rivalry returned to San Antonio in 2018 for the first time in six years.
Like the first ever meeting in 2012 the 2018 version was a close game. That was about where the similarities ended. The 2018 contest fell in September and pitted the 0-3 Roadrunners against the 1-2 Bobcats.
UTSA led from beginning to end but it got dramatic in the fourth quarter. UTSA had a 23-14 lead after a pair of Jared Sackett field goals early in the final frame. The Bobcats scored a touchdown with 5:08 left to play to cut the Roadrunner lead down to 23-21. UTSA's next drive stalled out and Yannis Routsas came on to punt. In what turned out to be an important play on the evening Routsas landed a punt that was downed by UTSA at the Texas State two yard line with 2:01 left to play
Kevin Strong brought down Bobcats QB Tyler Vitt in the endzone on the first play of the drive and the safety put two points on the board for UTSA. The Roadrunners got the ball back and were able to run out the clock. What if UTSA doesn't get that safety and Texas State goes down and wins the game?
The probable way the Roadrunners lose is a last second field goal by Texas State. A 24-23 loss to the Bobcats would have dropped UTSA to 0-4 as they began their conference schedule. In actuality the win over Texas State was the first of three in a row for UTSA that proved to be the only wins in a 3-9 2018 season.
A loss to Texas State might have carryover to the next week when UTSA hosted UTEP. UTSA won that game 30-21 but it is possible a loss to Texas State at home lingers in the next week. It was also going to be UTEP's first visit to San Antonio since the 5-OT game in 2016 and before 2018 the home team had never won in the UTSA-UTEP series.
Assuming UTSA loses to Texas State but beats UTEP and Rice the Roadrunners are finishing 2018 with a 2-10 record, by far the worst record in school history. A loss to Texas State that has carry over to the UTEP game means a 1-11 or even 0-12 season is not outside the realm of possibility. Frank Wilson likely would have been cut loose after 2018 if the Roadrunners finish 2-10 or worse. As it was he only lasted one more season after going 3-9.
That Kevin Strong safety might have been bigger than it seemed at the time.
What if UTSA loses to Rice in 2019?
UTSA and Rice have played more competitive games against each other than not. The 2019 contest on October 19 was no different. For the second time in three seasons Rice traveled to San Antonio to be part of UTSA's homecoming game. In the 2017 homecoming UTSA had won 20-7. The 2019 homecoming would prove to be a lot closer.
The Owls and Roadrunners were both in the midst of tough starts to the season. UTSA was 2-4 and 1-2 in conference. Rice was 0-6 and 0-2 in conference. When the doors to the Alamodome opened the records were left outside along the railroad tracks.
On the third saturday of October there were six different lead changes between the Owls and Roadrunners. UTSA led 7-3 after one quarter. Rice led 10-7 at halftime. The two teams then found offense neither knew it had in the third quarter. The two teams combined for 31 points in the third quarter and the score was tied at 24 entering the fourth quarter.
Rice tacked on a field goal to go up 27-24 with 9:02 left in the fourth quarter. UTSA answered four minutes later with a touchdown pass from Lowell Narcisse to Zakhari Franklin at the 5:06 mark of the final quarter. The Roadrunners then held off the Owls who got to the UTSA 41 yard line before fumbling on 4th down with seven seconds left.
What if Rice completes the comeback in the fourth quarter and beats UTSA? what does that mean for UTSA going forward in 2019?
Had Rice completed the comeback and won 34-31 it would have been up there on the list of crushing losses for UTSA. It would have given Rice their first win of the season. Assuming the later UTSA games go the way they did it means a 3-9 finish for the second year in a row. Judging by the fact UTSA needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat Old Dominion in November its not hard to imagine a 2-10 finish for UTSA in 2019 instead of the 4-8 record they ended up with. It also would have meant Rice finishing 4-8 on the season as they closed out 2019 with three straight wins to finish 3-9.
A loss to Rice would have been the first time that had happened to UTSA since 2014. Wilson was eventually let go at the end of the season. It is possible that losing to Rice on homecoming might have led to his firing earlier than the end of the season. That also could have been a recipe for the Roadrunners finishing worse than the 4-8 they actually attained.
What does UTSA look like today if these results had been different?
The biggest what if of the recent rivalry games has to be the 2017 loss at North Texas. If UTSA wins that game it might have changed the momentum of that season entirely. UTSA was riding a wave of confidence early in 2017 coming off the bowl trip in 2016. The loss to Southern Miss the week before had drizzled a little on the Roadrunners parade. The last second loss at Denton dropped a monsoon on the parade and the Roadrunners didn't really recover from it the rest of the season.
If UTSA had won that game they might have stayed in the division race through November and maybe even beat Louisiana Tech in Ruston to win the division. That would have been a big boost to the program and might have changed the results of 2018 and 2019 as well.
In 2018 if UTSA had lost to Texas State it could have deflated the team to the point where they are unable to recover in the next two games against UTEP and Rice. Of course they might still beat UTEP and Rice that year but that still would mean a 2-10 record based on the loss to Texas State. That could have been curtains for the Wilson era at the end of 2018 and not 2019 which leads to a different head coach than the one the Roadrunners have now in Traylor.
A loss to Rice in 2019 would have likewise done damage to the ultimate record and might have cost another win down the road due to residual momentum. It also would have been a sign that Rice and UTSA weren't too far apart which might have led to the coaching change coming in October of 2019 and not November.
UTSA has been fortunate to pull out some of the rivalry games they have and yet they have also been unlucky in a few. Those results along with the when and who started UTSA have built the program into what it is today. If one of those pieces ended up differently the Roadrunner football team might look completely different than it does today. That could be a good thing or a bad thing.
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