Since starting football in 2011 the UTSA Roadrunners have developed rivalry series with fellow Texas colleges. Some games have been close, others haven't. What if those close games had turned out differently?
The What If Series: What If...An Earlier Debut | What If...A Different first coach | What If...The Saints come marching in and stay in SA | What If...A different Conference Realignment | What If...The Roadrunner QBs | What If...The Roadrunners in March | What If...The near misses | What If...Victories were actually defeats | What If...A different outcome in the New Mexico Bowl | What If...The Roadrunners play Houston in 2017
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In 2012 the UTSA Roadrunners played their first full regular season schedule of 12 games. Included in those 12 games were two games that started rivalry series for UTSA. On October 13, 2012 the Roadrunners travelled to Houston to face the Rice Owls. Prior to that day UTSA and Rice had mostly operated on different levels athletically. Within a few months the two schools would be conference mates.
UTSA lost to Rice that day, their first loss of the 2012 season but a few weeks later the Roadrunners entered their season finale with a 7-4 record. Their opponent on that final day of the 2012 season was Texas State. Though the two schools had long been conference rivals in other sports they would now face off on the football field. UTSA won the first game against Texas State and then had to wait five years to play their biggest rival again.
By the time UTSA and Texas State met again on a football field in 2017 UTSA had developed conference rivalries with Rice, UTEP, North Texas and to a lesser degree Louisiana Tech and Southern Miss.
Since those first games against Rice and Texas State in 2012 the Roadrunners have played a total of 25 games against their Texas rivals of Rice, North Texas, UTEP and Texas State. In those 25 games the Roadrunners have a record of 16-9.
Some of the games have been close. Some haven't been as close. Nearly every game between UTSA and the rivals have been competitive. They have also helped decide the fate of both teams in the seasons they were played. What if the rivalry games had gone differently?
What if UTSA loses to Texas State in 2012?
While UTSA and Texas State were conference rivals for many years they only had one year that both were in the same football conference. Both schools were members of the WAC in 2012 before moving on to separate conferences in 2013.
The WAC schedule makers scheduled the I-35 Rivalry game for Thanksgiving Weekend. On November 24 The Bobcats loaded up and headed to face the Roadrunners in the Alamodome. It would be the only time Larry Coker and Dennis Franchione met in the I-35 series.
A crowd of 39,032 filed into the Alamodome that afternoon not sure what they would witness. It turned out they witnessed a quality game. UTSA raced out to a 10-0 lead in the first quarter and never trailed throughout the game. Texas State mounted a late comeback and were within seven points of the Roadrunners with under two minutes to play. At the 1:40 mark the Bobcats tried an onside kick but UTSA recovered the onside kick. The Roadrunners would have to punt but left Texas State with only 35 seconds to work with. It wasn't enough time and UTSA took the first game of the rivalry series by a score of 38-31.
But what might have happened if UTSA lost to Texas State in 2012?
For one thing it would have meant Texas State recovered the onside kick and went down to tie the score. From there they could have gone for two to win it in regulation or forced overtime and won it then. Regardless of the how, if UTSA had lost to Texas State in 2012 it would have been a morale buster for the Roadrunners.
UTSA entered the game with a 7-4 record and 2-3 in conference, Texas State was 3-7 overall and 1-3 in conference. A Texas State win would push their record to 4-7 heading into their final game. In real 2012 they finished 4-8 so a win over UTSA would change that to 5-7. On the other side UTSA had been riding a roller coaster in 2012. They had started 5-0 and then lost four straight before winning two in a row leading up to the Texas State game.
If UTSA had lost to Texas State they would have finished 2012 with a 7-5 record. There might not have been too much carry over in 2013 as UTSA went 7-5 in that season as well but then again a loss to Texas State to close out 2012 would have left a bad taste in the Roadrunners mouths heading into 2013. It also would have made the return trip to San Marcos interesting, assuming that happens in 2017 or earlier.
What if UTSA beats North Texas in 2015
On Halloween 2015 the Roadrunners experienced a house of horrors at Apogee Stadium in Denton. That night the Roadrunners lost to North Texas for the first time in the third meeting between the two schools. What made the loss spooky was the fact that North Texas was 0-7 entering the game with one of those losses being a 66-7 shellacking by FCS-member Portland State three weeks before in the North Texas homecoming game.
Granted UTSA wasn't much better entering that game. The Roadrunners had started 2015 with a 1-6 record. Their only win to that point had come on the first saturday of October in El Paso when they clubbed UTEP by a score of 25-6. Even with that it was thought by some in the lead up to the North Texas game that UTSA had a chance for their second win of the season.
It didn't turn out that way as North Texas returned a blocked extra point to tie the score at 23 and then won 30-23 with a fourth quarter touchdown. The loss to North Texas went a long way to deciding the fate of Larry Coker who retired after the 2015 season.
What if that extra point isn't blocked and UTSA beats North Texas? Does Coker stay on for the 2016 season?
First things first. If UTSA had beaten North Texas in 2015 and assuming they beat Charlotte and Rice as they did in real life that means they finish 2015 with a 4-8 record. It would have marked the second straight season with a 4-8 finish after having gone 8-4 and 7-5 in 2012 and 2013.
Is a second 4-8 season in a row enough to keep Coker around? Maybe. But it is possible that even with a second straight 4-8 season he might have still retired at the end of the season. He was a few months from turning 68 when the 2015 season ended. Even if UTSA had beaten North Texas it might not have been enough to keep Coker around.
If Coker does stick around for 2016 it is possible the Roadrunners still make a bowl game that season but if he has another losing season in 2016 then UTSA is coach searching leading into 2017 which could mean Frank Wilson comes a year later or doesn't come to UTSA at all.
On the other side of things, a loss to UTSA likely dooms North Texas to a winless season for the first time since the Mean Green's inaugural season of 1913.
What if UTSA loses at Rice in 2016?
In terms of the rivals of UTSA, Rice might not be the first one that comes to the mind of most Roadrunner fans but in terms of distance among the conference rivals, none are closer than Rice. A mere 210 miles stand between the campuses of UTSA and Rice.
The Roadrunners and Owls first met in 2012 with Rice winning 34-14 at historic Rice Stadium. UTSA won in 2013 and 2015 but Rice won 17-7 in 2014. As UTSA travelled to Rice Stadium in 2016 they were searching for their first win on the Owls home field.
In 2016 Rice wasn't as strong as they had been in the previous two meetings in Houston. The Owls were 0-5 and 0-3 in conference as play began on October 15, 2016. UTSA entered the game with a 2-3 record and 1-1 in conference.
Rice struck first with a touchdown on their opening drive but they missed the extra point. UTSA answered later in the first quarter when Josh Stewart caught the first of his two touchdown passes to put UTSA up 7-6. Stewart added his second touchdown to put UTSA up 14-6 in the second quarter. Rice got within one point of UTSA when they scored a touchdown in the third quarter.
The Roadrunners clung to that 14-13 lead but the Owls had a chance to retake the lead with 1:27 left to play. Rice's field goal attempt went wide right. UTSA was then able to run 1:07 off the clock before giving the Owls the ball with 20 seconds to play. It wasn't enough time and UTSA held on for the 14-13 win. It was the first road win for Frank Wilson as Roadrunners head coach.
But what if Rice had beaten UTSA on that warm night in Houston?
Had the Owls field goal been true the Roadrunners would have been down 16-14 with 1:27 left to play. It was enough time for UTSA to drive into field goal range but then again the Roadrunners hadn't scored since the first half. Assuming UTSA is unable to score a loss to Rice drops the Roadrunners to 2-4 overall. It would also mean that for the second season in a row the Roadrunners lost a game to a previously winless rival. It also would have added fuel to the idea that UTSA had some kind of a hex on them when it came to playing at Rice Stadium.
A loss to Rice also means UTSA probably doesn't make it to the New Mexico Bowl as they finish 5-7 on the season instead of 6-6 (assuming all other games after Rice end with same result). The momentum that built up in 2016 is likely slowed by a loss at Rice and it foreshadows the coming seasons of struggle. Missing out on a bowl by one game in 2016 could do the opposite though and provide enough umph for the Roadrunners in 2017 to break through and make a bowl game. If not then that loss to Rice means UTSA might still be searching for a first ever bowl trip.
Such things can be decided on the foot of a kicker.
If these results had been different what does it mean for UTSA football today?
It is probable that had results in some of the rivalry games been different UTSA would look different today.
A loss to Texas State in 2012 likely would have had carry over into 2013 based on the fact that it was the final game of that season. It also would have lingered in both fanbases until the two sides could play again. The loss to Texas State might have fueled the 2013 side to push for a better record but I can't see them getting eight wins in 2013. It would mean that today UTSA football's highest win total in a season would be seven.
If UTSA beats North Texas in 2015 it likely doesn't change much for North Texas aside from them finishing 0-12 instead of 1-11. They were already going to have a new head coach in 2016. For UTSA on the other hand it means they potentially finish 4-8 and that leads to another question of what happens to Larry Coker after the season. Some still debate whether he retired or was fired. The road to that started with the loss to North Texas. If UTSA wins that he might still be coaching in 2016. If UTSA makes a bowl under Coker that season he gets to ride off into the sunset on a high note.
Coker sticking around an extra year also means in all probability a different second coach in UTSA history and possibly no Traylor as head coach either.
A loss to Rice in 2016 likely has long running effects on the program. A loss to Rice keeps UTSA out of a bowl game in 2016. The missed opportunity is long remembered as UTSA is not selected for a bowl in 2017 and unable to reach the wins needed in 2018 and 2019. Of course on the flipside the missed chance in 2016 could lead to UTSA breaking through in 2017.
NEXT WEEK: What If...the Rivalry Games Part 2
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