Between 2010 and 2013 all across the country there was conference realignment in every FBS conference. UTSA was able to benefit from the musical chairs of conference as it moved up the ladder. What if the realignment is different? What if UTSA doesn't get the chance to rise as fast as it did?
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As the decade of the 20-Teens began there hadn't been a large conference realignment in five years. The 2005 realignment had seen 23 teams change conferences but it didn't affect the UTSA Roadrunners who were still non-football-playing members of the Southland Conference.
The Roadrunners added football in 2008 with the original plan being for them to start in 2011 in the Southland Conference. UTSA would play football in the Southland for a few years, building up a strong base before moving up to the FBS level. The ultimate goal, even in those early years was to one day try for an invite from Conference USA.
Outside of San Antonio 2010 marked the beginning of a new set of conference realignment that led to the Roadrunners starting football not in the Southland but as an FCS independent before moving up to the FBS level after one season. By year three of playing football the Roadrunners would rise to Conference USA. But what if the 2010-13 conference realignment turned out differently? What if the spots UTSA landed weren't available?
What if the Big 12 stays together and a domino effect of realignment doesn't happen?
The 2010-13 era of realignment got kicked off when the Big 10 plucked Nebraska and the Pac 10 pulled Colorado from the Big 12. Those two left the Big 12 in 2011. A year later Texas A&M and Missouri left to join the SEC. But what if those four teams stick around in the Big 12. How might that affect UTSA.
The departures of the four from the Big 12 led that conference to add TCU and West Virginia from a planned rebirth of the Big East as the American Conference (TCU was heading from the Mountain West to the Big East/American before stopping off in the Big 12).
With the Big 12 sticking together the Big 10 and Pac 10 go elsewhere to find their 12th members. The Pac 12 picks Utah (as they did in real life) and Colorado State out of the Mountain West. The Big 10 looks to the Big East for their 12th member and chooses West Virginia. TCU remains in the Mountain West.
In the east the SEC takes Clemson and Florida State from the ACC. The ACC decides they want to add four teams, two to replace Clemson and Florida State and two to bring their total up to 12 teams. They take four from the 16-team Big East conference which splits between their non-football and full member schools. The full member schools create the American Conference (as in our timeline).
The Mountain West does their thing by going after the WAC which possibly opens the door for the WAC to try for UTSA and Texas State. This move is done to help WAC member Louisiana Tech get rivals closer than New Mexico State. Depending on how many members pre-2011 leave the WAC the conference might survive.
One thing the Roadrunners might find is that the Big East took from the Conference USA East but not the west. That means if the WAC collapses at some point later than it did in real life the Roadrunners only option is the Sun Belt.
What if the Roadrunners and Texas State end up in the same conference
Prior to the 2010-13 era of conference realignment the Roadrunners and Texas State Bobcats had played their rivalry out as members of the Southland Conference. If the 2010 realignment turns out differently it is possible both remain conference rivals. This could have happened a few different ways.
The first possibility is that both remain members of the Southland Conference. I don't see this lasting too far into the 2010s as both schools were committed to making the move up to the FBS level at the turn of the decade. In this scenario the Roadrunners and Bobcats stay in the Southland until 2013 or 2014 and move up to the only conference available to them, the Sun Belt. In this scenario the Roadrunners would not make the New Mexico Bowl in 2016 and remaining at the FCS level means the first four seasons are played with only 65 scholarship players not 85. Imagine the Roadrunners who don't become Roadrunners if they don't move up as fast as they did.
The second possibility is similar to the first but with the change of both teams moving up in 2012 as they did in real life. The two schools are members of a stronger WAC which doesn't collapse after their first season in the league. This means while their rivalry together blossoms it takes away from rivalries the two have created in their real conference homes.
A third possibility follows closer to the real life events but has UTSA joining the Sun Belt in 2013 and not Conference USA. Though this might have been unpopular with UTSA fans that wanted to be in Conference USA it would mean that UTSA and Texas State would have annual conference battles in the Sun Belt. There might even be a year where the two played on Thanksgiving Weekend with a trip to the Sun Belt Championship on the line.
What if in recent years the Big 12 adds Houston and another school to go back up to 12 teams?
In recent years the rumors of the Big 12 going back up to 12 teams have gone through periods of time where they were thicker than mosquitos on the Gulf Coast. One of those rumors a few years back involved the possibility that Houston might be a candidate for one of those two spots. How might that affect UTSA. Would UTSA be the other invite.
To burst one bubble, UTSA in the Big 12 is as long a shot today as man landing on the moon must have been 100 years ago. That is to say it is possible but chances are slim to none and slim took a ride on Apollo 11. So maybe in 50 years UTSA will join the Big 12.
However if in say 2017 the Cougars of Houston are invited to the Big 12 (along with say Memphis or SMU) that opens up one or two slots in the West division of the American Conference. The American Conference decides it wants to keep a foothold in Texas and needs one or two teams in the Lone Star State. The American Conference decides it should add four teams from the C-USA West and so UTSA, North Texas Rice and Louisiana Tech move up another rung on the ladder.
Nationally people think the American has slipped back from its purported position as a "power 6" conference but thanks to Houston and SMU or Memphis heading up to the Big 12 UTSA gets to move to a higher caliber of conference.
Is UTSA better off for conference realignment happening the way it did?
The Roadrunners advance up the ladder of conferences was one of the fastest in NCAA history. Year one of football as an FCS independent, year two in the WAC, year three in Conference USA, it is a move up unlikely to be repeated.
UTSA was lucky to be starting football at a time when so many conferences were adding and losing teams. If any one of those conferences doesn't add a team or lose a team the Roadrunners rise might be stunted or slowed down. It is also possible that if UTSA isn't as ready as it was to move conferences at the turn of the decade then the Roadrunners might still be in the Southland Conference. It really was a stars-aligning kind of moment for UTSA and the Roadrunners were ready when the moment came.
While they might have hit a rough patch in recent years the Roadrunners are still in a relatively good position. As the years move deeper in the 21st century there will likely be more conference realignment. What that realignment will look like is anyone's guess but it is likely to be a return to more regional conferences as opposed to the spacious conferences of today.
The best thing UTSA can do as a school is to put itself in position to be ready and to be a wanted commodity when a conference comes calling. Especially if it is the Big 12. That highway 87 rivalry with Texas Tech is just waiting to be started.
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