In 2016 the UTSA Roadrunners football team played in the New Mexico Bowl, the first bowl game in school history. It ended up being a 23-20 defeat to the New Mexico Lobos. What if the bowl had turned out differently?
The What If Series: What If...An Earlier Debut | What If...A Different first coach | What If...The Saints come marching in and stay in SA | What If...A different Conference Realignment | What If...The Roadrunner QBs | What If...The Roadrunners in March | What If...The near misses | What If...Victories were actually defeats
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On December 17, 2016 the UTSA Roadrunner football team took the field for their 71st game in program history. The 71st game was not like the previous 70 that had come before. It just happened to be the first bowl game in the short history of the UTSA gridiron experience.
UTSA's first bowl game happened to be the 11th annual Gildan New Mexico Bowl. Waiting on the Roadrunners in Albuquerque were the New Mexico Lobos in whose home stadium the bowl was being played. Conditions were less than ideal. It was a clear day with a temperature at kickoff of 42 degrees but a 26 mph wind made it feel like it was 30 degrees.
The weather didn't seem to deter the thousands of Roadrunner fans who had come from far and wide to witness another piece of UTSA history. The attendance for the 2016 New Mexico Bowl was 29,688, just 9,536 short of the full capacity of Albuquerque's University Stadium.
The first bowl game in program history will long be remembered by Roadrunner fans, whether they were in the seats in Albuquerque or watching at home on ESPN.
It was a closely contested game between UTSA and New Mexico. In the end the Roadrunners comeback attempt came up short in a 23-20 defeat. There were some positives for UTSA. They outrushed 2016's best rushing team but too many drives ended in field goals when touchdowns could have put UTSA on the path the victory.
What if UTSA had won the New Mexico Bowl? What if either team had won in a blowout? What if the weather had been different? How might the 2016 New Mexico Bowl be remembered now with a different outcome
What if the weather had been a little less windy? What if there had been rain?
One way to describe the conditions of the 2016 New Mexico Bowl would be windswept. The gathered crowd got some idea of what kind of game they might be in for when the teams took the field behind cheerleaders running with flags. The flag bearers had issues running into the fast wind.
The New Mexico flag bearer even had his flag pulled off of the pole by the wind. UTSA's flag bearer fought the wind and managed to carry the flag into the endzone. It was a sign that the game likely would be won on the ground. Indeed the Lobos, who ran a triple-option offense that led the country in rushing in 2016 only attempted six passes the entire game and completed three of those. UTSA attempted 26 passes but only 10 were completed.
There was one plus for both teams, aside from the wind the weather was quite lovely for New Mexico in December. There were clouds over the mountains to the north and east of Albuquerque but over the stadium itself it was relatively sunny. That Saturday night the weather rolled in and it snowed on Albuquerque.
But what if the weather had been less windy. On another note what if the weather moved in early and a cold rain fell on the New Mexico Bowl.
One thing for sure is that less wind would have helped the Roadrunners pass attack as some passes that flew over the heads of receivers might have found their hands. One notable example might have been in the second quarter when Sturm, with the wind at his back threw a pass to JaBryce Taylor in the endzone from 11 yards out. If Taylor had been able to catch the ball UTSA would have taken a 10-7 lead. After the overthrow UTSA would have to settle for a field goal.
Had it been raining on the day of the bowl game it would have made conditions tougher for both teams. Rain would have been trouble for an option running team like New Mexico as each pitch and lateral would risk being dropped. For UTSA the issues with the passing game in the wind would have also been present in the rain. There would have been drops. The important thing would have been to keep those drops to a minimum. Rain would have also affected the referees. Keeping the footballs dry would have been a constant struggle for the zebra crew.
Even with the wind the 2016 New Mexico Bowl was a closely contested game and both teams had their chances to win. Changing the weather likely ends up with a different result and its possible UTSA is able to win their first bowl game with less wind or a cold rain.
What if the game is a blowout?
The Roadrunners and Lobos had played a low scoring game through the first three quarters. Between them they had scored 22 points in the first three quarters with New Mexico holding a 16-6 lead.
In the fourth quarter the two teams combined for 21 points. UTSA scored twice in the fourth quarter but New Mexico's touchdown came after a drive that took up half the quarter. UTSA's second touchdown of the quarter came after that drive and with just 25 seconds left on the clock. It wasn't enough time for the Roadrunners to come back after they were unable to recover the onside kick.
That is the memorable thing about the 2016 New Mexico Bowl is that it was a close game throughout. Even though New Mexico led for 45:04 of the game their lead remained single digits for most of the game. UTSA played hard knowing a touchdown could reclaim the lead but the only thing they had to show for the first three quarters was two field goals.
What if the game had been a blowout? What if New Mexico ran the Roadrunners clean out of the stadium. What if UTSA had managed touchdowns instead of field goals and kept New Mexico off the board?
As close as the two teams were it is hard to see the game being a blowout. However since this is a what if lets imagine what it looks like if either team blows the other out. First an imagining of New Mexico mauling UTSA.
Depending on how lopsided the score is for New Mexico it would have no doubt led to disappointment for the thousands of Roadrunner fans who made the trip as well as those watching on TV at home. The game after all was on ESPN. If it turns out early that New Mexico is going to coast there would be a lot of Roadrunner fans tuning out. A heavy defeat in the bowl game would have soured the fanbase something fierce. It would have now been seen as a harbinger of the years to come, assuming 2017-19 turn out the way they do.
On the other hand if UTSA is the one that blows out New Mexico then things look different on that return trip to San Antonio. Depending on the final score UTSA has delivered a command performance on national TV and the boost that gives the program likely means a different approach to the ensuing seasons.
UTSA would have entered 2017 riding a confidence boost of knowing they can make a bowl and win a bowl. WIth it being a blowout a number of young players got to experience playing in the bowl game and now know what it takes to get there. Even though a lot of senior leadership graduated after 2016 the young Roadrunners carry the experience into the new season.
Assuming they play Houston (Another What If for another week) and beat them then 2017 starts out with the Roadrunners sitting at 4-0. Even if they lose the close game to Southern Miss and the heartbreaker at North Texas, UTSA would have ended 2017 with a 7-5 record and an automatic spot in a bowl game.
Two straight bowl trips would have been an even bigger boost to the school's image and recruiting. Another side effect of a second straight bowl trip is that after the 2017 season it is possible that Frank Wilson takes a job as head coach of a power five school but leaves UTSA in a position to be a highly sought out coaching location.
What if UTSA wins the New Mexico Bowl?
For most of the day the New Mexico Bowl hung on a thin edge. Both teams could have taken control of the game. UTSA had their chances to retake the lead a few times during the game. Twice New Mexico went up by 10 points and twice UTSA answered to cut the deficit back to three. The final time UTSA cut that deficit to three proved to be too little to late as it came in the final seconds of the game.
New Mexico could celebrate their second bowl win since 1961. UTSA could hold their heads up high that in their first ever bowl trip they were right there for most of the afternoon. But as the saying goes close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades. In a bowl game, whether its by three or 30, a loss is a loss.
But what if UTSA wins the 2016 New Mexico Bowl? There are a few ways it could have happened. If one of their field goals in the first half had been a touchdown they would have led 10-7 at halftime. Assuming the rest of the game goes the way it did then the pass from Sturm to Taylor ends up being the game winner and UTSA leaves with a 24-23 win.
A defensive stop on one of New Mexico's touchdown drives that ends in a punt or field goal also would have affected the final score. If New Mexico scores on their fourth quarter drive but it is quicker than half the quarter that might have left UTSA time to get the ball back down 23-20 and push for a field goal or touchdown.
No matter how it happens a bowl win would have provided an immediate boost to UTSA football. As mentioned above it changes the mood of the team going into 2017. If they win a close bowl game they know what it takes to win close games and to close out games. That was an issue that would plague them in 2017.
If UTSA wins the New Mexico Bowl they would have finished 2016 with a 7-6 record, only the third winning season in school history. 2017 likely ends up different if they win the 2016 New Mexico bowl and its possible the Roadrunners win some of the close games they lost in 2017. A second bowl trip in 2017 would have provided a short term boost to the program that would still be felt today.
What does UTSA look like today with a different result in the New Mexico Bowl?
UTSA losing the New Mexico Bowl seemed at the time like a small speed bump in the program's rise. The fast start to 2017 continued to boost fan hopes that a second bowl game might be in the offing. UTSA still finished with a winning record in 2017 but there were more bowl eligible teams than bowl spots and UTSA was one of three teams left without a chair when the music stopped.
In the three seasons since the loss in the New Mexico Bowl UTSA has been unable to reach those heights of 2016. It is anyone's guess as to when they make it back to a bowl game as the Traylor era has yet to begin.
Had UTSA won the New Mexico bowl it would have changed the fortunes of the Roadrunners for the rest of the 2010s and into the 2020s. A win in 2016 before a national tv audience would have helped the brand and led to more people knowing about UTSA. If UTSA wins the New Mexico Bowl and then gets seven wins in 2017 they are guaranteed to have made it two bowl appearances in two years.
Whether the Roadrunners win a hypothetical bowl in 2017 or not it might be enough for a larger school to come calling for Frank Wilson at the end of the 2017 season with an armored car full of money. He'd have had a tough decision to make. If he does take the chance at another school then that means UTSA is looking for a new coach before the 2018 season but are coming off back-to-back bowl trips and maybe back-to-back bowl wins. It is possible a new coach in 2018 helps keep the Roadrunners on an upward trajectory. Perhaps the 2018 or 2019 Roadrunners make a run at a conference championship game.
Such things could have been possible if UTSA had won the New Mexico Bowl. If the Roadrunners had lost in a blowout the implosion of 2018-19 might have happened earlier. If the Roadrunners win in a blowout they are potentially set up for a successful 2017 and possibly more in 2018 and 2019.
Such is the transformative power of a bowl win or multiple bowl trips. It can change the fortunes of a program. UTSA and the Roadrunner fans continue to hope for the day that UTSA wins its first bowl game. It almost happened in 2016.
NEXT WEEK: What If...the Roadrunners play Houston in 2017
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