Since their first game in 2011 the Roadrunner football team has had its share of close games, going 18-19 in one-score games. What if some of those losses had been wins?
The What If Series: What If...An Earlier Debut | What If...A Different first coach | What If...The Saints come marching in and stay in SA | What If...A different Conference Realignment | What If...The Roadrunner QBs | What If...The Roadrunners in March
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When the Roadrunner football team stepped out of the locker room for their inaugural game on September 3, 2011 they were stepping into the great unknown. The results to come were yet to be revealed. That first day things went as well as anyone, especially the record crowd of 56,743 could have hoped for. The Roadrunners won in a runaway, 31-3 over Northeastern Oklahoma State.
Since that first game the Roadrunners have stepped onto a football field 105 more times in cities and towns stretching from Norfolk, Virginia to Davis, California; from Moscow, Idaho to Miami, Florida. Since that first game the Roadrunners have played 52 more times in the Alamodome.
Some of those 106 games have been blowouts but 37 games have been decided by eight points or fewer. In those 37 games the Roadrunners have gone 18-19. What if their close losses had been wins?
What if UTSA had beaten McMurry?
Prior to the start of football in 2011, there was a shirt sold in the UTSA bookstore that was a must have for every Roadrunner fan. The shirt said "UTSA Football" on the front and "Still Undefeated" on the back. It could be had in Blue, Orange, White or Gray.
Fans of the Blue and Orange had likely looked at the 2011 schedule and wondered when the Roadrunners would first experience a defeat and push those "Still Undefeated" t-shirts into the shelves of history.
The fans likely didn't predict those t-shirts would be retired on September 10, 2011 in just the second game in program history. For the 31,634 fans who attended that day it would be a game they would never forget, but not for the reason they might have hoped.
On that day the Roadrunners welcomed the McMurry War Hawks to town. The War Hawks were in their final season at the Division III level before moving up to Division II in 2012. McMurry was led by air-raid legend Hal Mumme but nine days before they had been blitzed, 82-6, by Stephen F. Austin under the pine trees in Nacogdoches. SFA eventually went 6-5 in 2011.
The Roadrunners had a battle on their hands. The War Hawks, no doubt angry at their showing behind the pine curtain raced out to a 10-0 lead in the Alamodome. The Roadrunners, stunned by the scrappy Hawks, managed to score twice in the third quarter to take a 14-10 lead. McMurry didn't back down and scored halfway through the fourth quarter to go up 17-14. UTSA answered with a touchdown at the 3:02 mark of the final quarter to lead 21-17. Then with 19 seconds left the War Hawks ripped the hearts out of the gathered masses in the Alamodome. Jake Mullin lofted a pass to Delfonte Diamond for a 32 yard touchdown on 2nd and 9. The War Hawks had gone 82 yards in 2:43 of time. They had also converted a 3rd and 22 and a 4th and 5 to keep the drive going.
But what if the pass had been overthrown? What if the War Hawks hadn't converted on a 3rd and 22 or 4th and 5?
If the pass had been overthrown the War Hawks would have been faced with a 3rd and 9 at the UTSA 32. They would have had two plays and 19 seconds to try and score a touchdown. UTSA might have kept them out or they might have scored on 3rd or 4th down. If UTSA had kept them from converting 3rd and 22 which led to the 4th and 5 the Roadrunners would have gotten possession of the ball and been able to run out the clock on a 2-0 start to the UTSA football experience.
If UTSA had beaten McMurry the "Still Undefeated" t-shirts might have gotten more life. A 2-0 UTSA would have gone on their first road trip to Cedar City Utah with more momentum than the 1-1 team in real life did. In the post-McMurry-loss history UTSA lost 45-22. If they are 2-0 going on the road it is possible they win against Southern Utah. A drubbing of Bacone in real life pushed them to 2-2, in an alternate timeline where they beat McMurry they might have been 3-1 or 4-0 as they went into the middle portion of their season. It's likely if they had started 4-0 their first loss might have come on the road at Sam Houston but their final record in 2011 would have been better than 4-6 if they had beaten McMurry. Without a win over UTSA, McMurry would have finished 2011 with an 8-4 record and not 9-3.
What if UTSA had beaten a Power Five before Baylor?
UTSA played their first power five opponent on September 7, 2013. They welcomed Oklahoma State to the Alamodome on that day. It wasn't pretty as the Cowboys rolled out of San Antonio with a 56-35 triumph.
The Roadrunners would lose their other power-five game in 2013, 38-13 at Arizona. A year later in 2014 UTSA nearly came close to beating Arizona in the Alamodome but lost 26-23. UTSA had the ball, down three when Tucker Carter threw an interception with 1:20 left to play and Arizona ran out all but 20 seconds of clock. The 20 seconds UTSA was left with wasn't nearly enough time.
It would be two years before UTSA had another chance to beat a power five opponent. After the close loss to Arizona UTSA lost 43-13 at Oklahoma State the next week. The Roadrunner's three games against power-five opponents in 2015 ended with final scores of 42-32, 30-3 and 69-14. On September 16, 2016 the Roadrunners welcomed the Arizona State Sun Devils to the Alamodome and held a 28-15 lead going into the 4th quarter before the Sun Devils put up 17 points in the fourth quarter to win 32-28. UTSA's other power-five game in 2016 was a 23-10 loss to Texas A&M in the Roadrunner's first trip to Kyle Field.
51 weeks after the loss to Arizona State UTSA finally broke through with a win over a power-five opponent when they beat Baylor 17-10 on the north bank of the Brazos River in Waco.
What if the Roadrunners had managed a win in either of their home games against the top universities in the Grand Canyon State. What if they had made a last minute comeback against Arizona or held off the late charge of Arizona State?
In 2014 the Roadrunners went into their home opener over Arizona coming off a 27-7 win over the Houston Cougars in a nationally televised game that also was the inaugural game at the Cougars new stadium. If UTSA had beaten Arizona they would have gone into their week three game at Oklahoma State with a 2-0 record. They likely would have still lost to Oklahoma State but it might have been closer than it actually turned out to be. Their fourth game of 2014 was another close game that got away when they lost 41-37 to FAU after leading 37-27 in the fourth quarter. There were a lot of close games for UTSA in 2014. That year they went 3-3 in games decided by eight points or less. A 2-0 start might have helped the 2014 Roadrunners to a better record than the 4-8 that they went, the win over Arizona might have springboarded them to a bowl game as early as 2014.
Two years later, if the Roadrunners first power five win had come against Arizona State it would have pushed their season record to 2-1 which if all other games in 2016 end as they did puts UTSA at 7-5 when the season ends. That means that UTSA probably ends up making a different bowl than the New Mexico Bowl, maybe the New Orleans Bowl or the Heart of Dallas Bowl. UTSA had a lot of fans that made the trip to Albuquerque. I imagine even more making the trip to New Orleans or Dallas if one of those two had been the locales for the first bowl trip. It could have been with a win over Arizona State.
A UTSA that has beaten either Arizona or Arizona State would have gone into Waco in September 2017 knowing what it took to beat a power-five opponent and several of the players on that team would have been part of the win over the Sun Devils and seniors would have remembered the win over Arizona in 2014.
If UTSA had beaten either of the Arizona universities they would have a record of 2-13 against power-five opponents (including a win over Baylor in 2017). A win over both Arizona and Arizona State would have provided extremely large boosts to the UTSA football program. Even just one win over one of those two likely provides a boost to the program's identity for a few years.
What if the Five-Overtime game against UTEP ends in victory?
When UTSA and UTEP met in the Alamodome on October 22, 2016 few could have imagined the history that would be made that night. Few also could have guessed that the history to be made would take four and a half hours to reveal itself.
By 2016 the Roadrunners and Miners had met three times before, twice in El Paso and once in San Antonio in 2014. The road team had won every game in the series. UTSA was looking to break that run and improve to 3-1 all-time against the Miners as well as to 4-3 on the 2016 season. UTEP entered with a 1-5 record on the season and were in search of their first conference win of the season, having started 0-3 in Conference USA. UTSA had gone 3-3 in its first half of the 2016 schedule and were 2-1 in conference with a chance to climb up the West Division standings.
The Roadrunners got off to a fast start, leading 14-0 before UTEP got on the board with a touchdown at the end of the first quarter. UTSA led 21-14 at halftime and 28-14 in the third quarter before the Miners closed out that quarter with a pair of touchdowns to tie the score at 28.
Neither team managed any points in the fourth quarter and so the 23,633 in attendance settled in for overtime, not knowing how many it would take. It turned out that five overtimes were needed. In the end UTEP won 52-49 in the longest game in Conference USA history and the sixth longest game in college football history at the time (It now ranks tied for eighth longest game ever).
The Roadrunners had chances to end the game in victory in the first, third and fifth overtimes as they had possession of the ball first. In each frame they scored, a field goal in the first and fifth overtimes and a touchdown coupled with a successful two-point conversion in the third overtime. UTEP answered to tie the score in the first and third overtimes and overtook the Roadrunners with a touchdown in the fifth overtime when a field goal would have sent the game into a sixth overtime (which would have put it in top five longest games of all time).
If UTSA had been able to stop UTEP in the first or third overtime they could have won the game by a score of either 31-28 (if it ended in first overtime) or 46-38 (if UTEP hadn't scored in the third overtime. The Roadrunners also could have claimed a victory in three overtimes even if UTEP scored by keeping the Miners from completing the two-point conversion that tied the game at 46. UTSA also could have won in the fourth overtime with a field goal after UTEP failed to score in their possession during that frame.
In the grand scheme of things, if UTSA had beaten UTEP in 2016 it would have been the first time a home team won in the series. UTSA also would have improved to 4-3 and 3-1 in conference. The Roadrunners also would have finished 2016 with a 7-5 record (8-4 if they also had beaten Arizona State) and probably a different bowl trip.
As it was, UTSA would win the next year in El Paso and then break the string of road teams winning in the series by winning in San Antonio in 2018. UTSA also beat UTEP in 2019 which means the Miners last win in the series came in the historic 5-OT game back in 2016.
In the big picture what do the near misses mean for the Roadrunners
Since the start of football the Roadrunners have had 35 percent of their games decided by eight points or less. The close losses have come at points where wins might have led to different results in later weeks.
If UTSA had beaten McMurry they would have been 2-0 to start the 2011 season and might have ended up with a 5-5 record or 6-4, maybe even 7-3 in 2011. They also wouldn't have the pain of being an FCS school to lose to a Division III school.
If UTSA had beaten a power five earlier than 2017 it might have improved their short term prospects but it also would have improved the national image of UTSA. The win over Arizona would have come on Fox Sports and the win over Arizona State would have been before an audience on ESPN 2.
The five overtime game against UTEP is historic because of how long it lasted. Whichever team lost would look back on missed opportunities. In the scheme of things for 2016 a win over UTEP would have no doubt helped the Roadrunners odds in the west division and in all probability would have meant a different location for the school's first ever bowl trip.
Of course the 2016 trip might have been a second bowl trip for UTSA depending on how an alternate 2014 goes with a win over Arizona. That's the thing about what ifs. A loss can change the momentum of a team just as much as a win can lift their spirits.
NEXT WEEK: What If...Victories were actually defeats
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