For the second consecutive season UTSA opens the Conference USA season at home against Middle Tennessee. Can the Roadrunners start 1-0 in conference for the second straight year?
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Last week UTSA recorded the first shutout in program history when they beat Lamar, 54-0, in the home opener. This weekend the Roadrunners, sitting at 2-0, prepare for their conference opener at home against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.
If this sounds familiar to you it is probably because this will be the second year in a row that the Roadrunners and Blue Raiders open conference play against each other on the Alamodome's faux-grass field.
UTSA and Middle Tennessee were not originally scheduled to play on September 25, 2020. That night UTSA was supposed to host Memphis in a nationally televised game. When Memphis had too many positive COVID cases and had to cancel, the Roadrunners had to pivot and find another opponent to keep their spot on TV.
Middle Tennessee stepped up as a replacement blue-clad Tennessee school and made the trip to San Antonio. Everyone was happy, CBS Sports Network got their Friday night game, so too did UTSA. The Roadrunners and Blue Raiders got an early start on the conference season.
Much like this season the Roadrunners will enter their conference opener with Middle Tennessee sporting a 2-0 record. Last year those two wins came against Texas State and SFA. This year's Roadrunners have claimed victories over Illinois and Lamar.
Last season Middle Tennessee entered the game with an 0-2 record after losing to Army and Troy. This season Middle Tennessee is 1-1, having beaten Monmouth in the season opener and losing at Virginia Tech last weekend.
The loss at Virginia Tech was probably not the best gift on the day that was the 110th birthday of Middle Tennessee State University. The Blue Raiders have been playing football since that first year of the school back in 1911. Back then the school was called Middle Tennessee State Normal School and the football team was known interchangeably as the Normalites, the Teachers or the Pedagogues. In 1934 they became known as the Blue Raiders.
Middle Tennessee football enters Saturday with a record of 587-445-28 all-time. If limited to just the era that UTSA has been playing football, the Blue Raiders are 62-63 since the start of the 2011 season.
Middle Tennessee and UTSA first met in San Antonio in the 2015 season. The Blue Raiders won that game 42-7. In 2016 UTSA went to Murfreesboro and won 45-25. That was the last meeting between the two until last season's last minute scheduling. Last year UTSA won 37-35 in a thrilling back and forth game.
The start of the Conference USA race
For the first time since probably 2017 the UTSA Roadrunners enter conference play as one of the teams hyped to possibly win the C-USA west division and possibly the whole conference.
Avoiding a let down similar to that 2017 season will begin with getting a win over Middle Tennessee. This isn't the 2020 Blue Raiders though who entered San Antonio searching for their first win.
The 2021 version of the Blue Raiders have averaged 32 points through their first two games and their opponents have averaged 25 points per game. Middle Tennessee has 686 yards of total offense through the first two games. Their defense has given up 657 yards in the first two games.
Middle Tennessee has thrown more than they have run this season. The Blue Raiders have 531 passing yards and 155 yards rushing. Of the Blue Raiders nine touchdowns this season, five have come through the air and two have come on the ground.
Bailey Hockman has accounted for 422 of the Blue Raiders passing yards and four touchdowns on 36 completions. Chase Cunningham has completed 10 passes for 109 yards and touchdown.
Amir Rasul leads the Blue Raiders rushing attack with 57 yards on 21 carries. Jimmy Marshall is the top receiver with 126 yards on 10 catches. Jaylin Lane has 121 receiving yards and a touchdown on eight catches.
The Blue Raider defense has been equal opportunity in its yardage given up, 345 through the air and 312 on the ground. As far as turnovers go, Middle Tennessee has only thrown one interception and lost no fumbles this season. The Blue Raider defense has three fumble recoveries and one interception.
UTSA counters with a two-game performance in which they've averaged 45 points per game to 15 points per game for their opponents (That 54-0 win over Lamar will likely help the Roadrunners ratio in this department for a few weeks to come).
The Roadrunners' offensive total yardage for is 924.. In the first two games UTSA has 601 yards through the air and 323 yards on the ground. UTSA's defense has given up 534 yards. The first two opponents have combined for 299 passing yards and 235 yards rushing against the UTSA defense.
UTSA has a plus-two turnover differential. The Roadrunners have recovered three fumbles and lost one. UTSA has not had an interception yet, although they certainly came close to a few in their first game at Illinois. The Roadrunner offense has also not thrown an interception yet this season.
Prediction time
Last season's game between UTSA and Middle Tennessee was the closest of the three all-time meetings between the two teams. With all that went on last season both teams were fortunate to get that game scheduled as quickly as it had been.
This year the Roadrunners seem to be even more balanced than they were last season, perhaps owing to it being year two under Jeff Traylor and the fact that so many of the players from last season are back this season.
UTSA has had more time to prepare for Middle Tennessee this year than they did last year (on the flipside MTSU has also had more time to prepare for UTSA). The Roadrunners have the look of a team with a lot of potential this season. If they want to reach that potential they will need to win not just the big games like the opener two weeks ago but the big games of conference as well. (Side note, UTSA is 5-4 all-time in conference openers and 4-4 in C-USA openers).
There will be big games in conference in the weeks ahead but they will lose some of their luster if the Roadrunners don't come out on the high end of the score against Middle Tennessee.
I think UTSA is able to move to 3-0 for the second straight season. The Roadrunners might even improve their turnover plus-minus during the game on Saturday.
My pick: UTSA 40 Middle Tennessee 31
FORUMS: UTSA Boulevard | Roadrunner Way
