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One more time in the Dome

Roadrunners close out the home schedule this weekend against the Florida Atlantic Owls in only the second meeting between the two programs

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This Saturday night the Roadrunners will play their final game in front of the home crowd for the 2019 season when they face off against Florida Atlantic. Much has been said and written about the crowds in recent home games and at the end of the season I will give my two cents on the attendance. Whether or not this weekend is the lightest crowd in program history the show will go on.

One thing that is known is that the Roadrunners will be wearing the Rowdy head helmets this weekend instead of their normal Texas outline helmets. I'm not pro one or the other. I think both have their merits and also think the Texas outline might score higher with some if it were drawn more realistically.

Ok so now that we've covered the things that drive the fanbase chatter lets talk about whats on the line for the Roadrunners as the season rolls into the final two weeks. Even though they are 4-6 the Roadrunners still have a chance to get to 6-6 and that magical title of bowl eligible. Bowl eligible and bowl invited are very different things.

I crunched the numbers and if UTSA goes 6-6 they would join a crowded group of Conference USA programs that have six wins or better. With two games left to play there are six teams that are already bowl eligible. Two more, Charlotte and FIU could get to six wins this weekend and UTSA and North Texas need to win both of their final games to get to 6-6.

Conference USA only has six guaranteed spots and three bowl spots that use C-USA as a secondary option if their primary conference invitees can't supply an eligible program. So it would seem all the primary spots are likely filled. Including the six bowls that partner with Conference USA there are a total of 39 bowls along with the National Championship game. That means 78 spots to be filled. Currently there are 65 bowl eligible teams across all conferences. 12 more teams could reach bowl eligibility this weekend and 26 other teams (including UTSA) need to win out to get to six wins.

Before UTSA can get into a position where they are playing bowl spot musical chairs they have to win their next two games. It starts with Florida Atlantic.

UTSA and Florida Atlantic: Youthful programs
UTSA Florida Atlantic

First year of Football

2011

2001

First year at FBS level

2012

2004

Joined Conference USA

2013

2013

All-time Record

45-59

99-129

Record last year

3-9 (2-6 C-USA)

5-7 (3-5 C-USA)

Last week's result

L 36-17 vs So. Miss

Did not play

Saturday will be only the second meeting on a football field between the Roadrunners and the Owls from Boca Raton. The only other meeting between the two programs came on September 27, 2014 when the Roadrunners under Larry Coker visited FAU Stadium and the Owls, then led by first-year head coach Charlie Partridge. That day the Roadrunners and Owls combined for 78 points. The Owls scored a winning touchdown with 20 seconds left to win 41-37 after UTSA had led 37-27 with 7:54 to play. The Roadrunners eventually went 4-8 that season. The Owls went 3-9.

Fast forward to 2019 and things between the two programs are quite different. Both are fighting to keep dreams alive. For UTSA its the dream of a six-win season. For Florida Atlantic its a chance to win a fourth-straight game for the second time this season.

Florida Atlantic will enter Saturday's game fighting to stay in the running for the East division title. The Owls, led by third-year head Coach Lane Kiffin, will need to beat UTSA and Southern Miss in their final two games and get either Charlotte or FIU to beat Marshall in the final two games.

The Owls have had little problem scoring this season. Through their first 10 games the Owls have the second best scoring offense in the conference at 33.5 points per game (The best scoring offense is Louisiana Tech, UTSA's opponent next weekend, at 35.3 points per game). The Owls also have the fifth best scoring defense in the conference, giving up 24.1 points per game. UTSA is averaging 19.1 points per game and giving up 32.6 points per game. The Roadrunners rank 11th in the conference in both categories.

Florida Atlantic has done most of its damage through the air compiling a total of 2832 yards this season (283.2 yards per game). Chris Robison has accounted for 2637 of those yards as well as 18 of the teams 19 passing touchdowns. Tight End Harrison Bryant has been the Owls leading receiver with 708 yards on 48 catches. The Owls leading scorer among the pass catchers has been tight end John Raine. Raine has caught five touchdowns out of 26 catches. It will be another stiff test for a Roadrunner pass defense that ranks Fourth in the conference, giving up an average of 210.3 yards per game.

UTSA's passing offense has shown improvement each week since Lowell Narcisse stepped in for the injured Frank Harris. The Roadrunner's best game was last weekend when Narcisse threw for 325 yards, the first 300-yard game by a Roadrunner QB since Dalton Sturm in 2017. On the season the Roadrunners passing has averaged 170 yards per game. UTSA's passing game is ranked 12th in the conference. On the other side the Owls passing defense ranks 13th in the conference, giving up an average of 254.6 yards per game.

On the ground the Owls have averaged 151.6 yards per game which is good for ninth in the conference. Running back Malcolm Davidson leads Florida Atlantic's rushing game with 517 yards on 79 attempts. Davidson also leads the Owls in rushing touchdowns with eight on the season. Davidson and the Owls will face a Roadrunner rush defense that ranks 13th in the conference, giving up 202.1 yards per game.

While the Roadrunner run defense ranks near the bottom of the conference the run offense is ranked sixth, averaging 163 yards per game. It is the young who lead the Roadrunner ground attack. True freshman Sincere McCormick has racked up 801 yards this season on 149 attempts, an average of 80.1 yards per game. McCormick has also run for eight touchdowns. McCormick is one touchdown away from tying Jalen Rhodes school record of nine rushing touchdowns in a season set back in 2016.

McCormick and the Roadrunners will try to gain yards on the ground against an Owl defense that is sixth best in the conference, giving up an average of 138.6 yards per game this season.

UTSA and Florida Atlantic: 2019 season comparison
UTSA FAU

Game 1

8.31 W 35-7 vs. UIW

8.31 L 45-21 @ Ohio State

Game 2

9.7 L 63-14 @ Baylor

9.7 L 48-14 vs. UCF

Game 3

9.14 L 31-13 vs. Army

9.14 W 41-31 @ Ball State

Game 4

9.21 L 45-3 @ North Texas

9.21 W 42-7 vs. Wagner

Game 5

10.5 W 25-16 @ UTEP

9.28 W 45-27 @ Charlotte

Game 6

10.12 L 33-14 vs. UAB

10.12 W 28-13 vs. Middle Tennessee

Game 7

10.19 W 31-27 vs. Rice

10.18 L 36-31 vs. Marshall

Game 8

11.2 L 45-14 @ Texas A&M

10.26 W 41-3 @ ODU

Game 9

11.9 W 24-23 @ ODU

11.2 W 35-24 @ Western Kentucky

Game 10

11.16 L 36-17 vs. Southern Miss

11.9 W 37-7 vs. FIU

Game 11

11.23 vs. Florida Atlantic

11.23 @ UTSA

Game 12

11.30 @ Louisiana Tech

11.30 vs. Southern Miss

So how does the game Saturday shake out. There is the possibility that UTSA pulls off the upset of Florida Atlantic but it won't be easy. In addition to what has been described previously there is one more thing to mention. The Owls are second in the country in turnover margin. Florida Atlantic's defense has come away with 14 interceptions and seven fumbles. The Owls offense has only thrown six interceptions and lost two fumbles for a turnover margin of +13. By comparison, the Roadrunners turnover margin is -4.

So with all the build up and based on the situations of the two teams I think a likely scenario on Saturday is a game similar to others the Roadrunners have played this year. UTSA will remain competitive for much of the game but they will get burned either on a big play or an inopportune turnover. For the Roadrunners it will be wait till next year for another chance at a bowl game. It just might happen in 2020 but not in 2019.

Prediction: UTSA 21 Florida Atlantic 35

FORUMS: UTSA Boulevard | Roadrunner Way

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